vault-cli: tiered analyze — Haiku default, --sonnet/--opus step up

vault analyze now defaults to Haiku/Bedrock (cheap+fast, the nightly tier)
instead of the profile default. --sonnet and --opus step intelligence/cost up
for harder judgment calls; raw -m/--provider still override entirely. Provider
is forced to bedrock only for the haiku (us.anthropic.*) tier; the
global.anthropic.* sonnet/opus IDs use the profile default provider. Adds an
alive banner to stderr (headless -z buffers, so a pass is silent 1-3 min).

vault

@@ -15,11 +15,11 @@ Subcommands:
   vault sync-data               reconcile /data skeleton to match manifest (create missing dirs)
   vault manifest                regenerate the topology manifest note
   vault report [--pretty]       deterministic Librarian report (delegates to vault-librarian.py)
-  vault analyze [-m MODEL] [--provider PROVIDER]
-                                spawn a Hermes Librarian pass (ad-hoc; uses the cron prompt).
-                                -m/--provider dial intelligence/spend inline. e.g. nightly cheap:
-                                  vault analyze -m us.anthropic.claude-haiku-4-5-20251001-v1:0 --provider bedrock
-                                omit both to use the profile's default (smart) model.
+  vault analyze [--sonnet|--opus] [-m MODEL] [--provider PROVIDER]
+                                spawn a Hermes Librarian pass. DEFAULT: Haiku/Bedrock
+                                (cheap+fast — the nightly/weekly tier). --sonnet / --opus
+                                step up intelligence & cost for harder judgment calls.
+                                -m/--provider override entirely (future/non-Bedrock models).
 """
 import os, re, sys, subprocess
 
@@ -32,6 +32,19 @@ HERMES = "/run/current-system/sw/bin/hermes"
 LIBRARIAN = os.path.join(_SELF_DIR, "vault-librarian.py")
 PROMPT = os.path.join(_SELF_DIR, "vault-librarian-prompt.md")
 
+# `vault analyze` model tiers. Default is Haiku — cheap+fast for the nightly/weekly
+# pass. --sonnet / --opus step up intelligence & cost inline. IDs verified against
+# this host's Hermes config + the active Bedrock provisioning.
+ANALYZE_TIERS = {
+    "haiku":  "us.anthropic.claude-haiku-4-5-20251001-v1:0",
+    "sonnet": "global.anthropic.claude-sonnet-5",
+    "opus":   "global.anthropic.claude-opus-4-8",
+}
+# Only the haiku (us.anthropic.*) tier is known to route via an explicit `bedrock`
+# provider. The global.anthropic.* IDs use the profile's default provider unless the
+# caller passes --provider, to avoid a provider/model-registration mismatch.
+ANALYZE_TIER_PROVIDER = {"haiku": "bedrock"}
+
 WIKILINK_RE = re.compile(r'(!?\[\[)([^\]#|]+)((?:#[^\]|]+)?(?:\|[^\]]+)?)(\]\])')
 
 
@@ -135,21 +148,41 @@ def main():
         sys.exit(subprocess.run([sys.executable, LIBRARIAN] + argv).returncode)
     elif cmd == "analyze":
         prompt = open(PROMPT, encoding="utf-8").read()
-        # `vault analyze [-m MODEL]` — pass an inline Bedrock/other model through to hermes -z
-        # so intelligence/spend can be dialed per cadence (nightly cheap, ad-hoc smart).
-        hcmd = [HERMES, "-z", prompt]
+        # Model tier: default Haiku (cheap nightly). --sonnet/--opus step up.
+        # Raw -m/--provider override the tier entirely (escape hatch for future models
+        # or non-Bedrock providers). Tier flags are last-wins if combined.
+        tier = "haiku"
+        if "--sonnet" in argv:
+            tier = "sonnet"
+        if "--opus" in argv:
+            tier = "opus"
+        model = ANALYZE_TIERS[tier]
+        provider = ANALYZE_TIER_PROVIDER.get(tier)  # None for sonnet/opus (use profile default)
         if "-m" in argv:
             i = argv.index("-m")
-            if i + 1 < len(argv):
-                hcmd += ["-m", argv[i + 1]]
-            else:
-                die("-m requires a model name (e.g. vault analyze -m us.anthropic.claude-haiku-4-5-20251001-v1:0)")
+            if i + 1 >= len(argv):
+                die("-m requires a model name")
+            model = argv[i + 1]
+            tier = "custom"
+            provider = None  # custom model: don't force a provider unless asked
         if "--provider" in argv:
             i = argv.index("--provider")
-            if i + 1 < len(argv):
-                hcmd += ["--provider", argv[i + 1]]
-            else:
-                die("--provider requires a provider name (e.g. vault analyze --provider bedrock)")
+            if i + 1 >= len(argv):
+                die("--provider requires a provider name")
+            provider = argv[i + 1]
+        hcmd = [HERMES, "-z", prompt, "-m", model]
+        if provider:
+            hcmd += ["--provider", provider]
+        # Banner: headless oneshot buffers output, so show it's alive + what it costs.
+        print(f"→ spawning Hermes Librarian pass  [tier={tier}  provider={provider or 'profile-default'}]",
+              file=sys.stderr)
+        print(f"  model: {model}", file=sys.stderr)
+        print("  output is buffered; a full pass can take 1–3 min before you see anything.",
+              file=sys.stderr)
+        if tier == "haiku":
+            print("  step up:  vault analyze --sonnet   (or --opus)  for harder judgment calls",
+                  file=sys.stderr)
+        sys.stderr.flush()
         subprocess.run(hcmd)
     else:
         die(f"unknown command '{cmd}'")